One hobby of mine is to find, read books and papers on economic or social theory that are five, ten or twenty years old. It gives a good insight to the authors ability to discern the future or future trends and whether or not to read their more current works. Three examples would be:
Unholy Wars written by John K. Cooley published in 1999. Has a picture of Bin Ladin on the front.
The Fourth Turning by Strauss and Howe. Published in 1997. Chapter ten is prescient.
Last and least, Yen! Japan's new financial empire and its threat to America! by Daniel Burstein. Published in 1990. First paragraph of Yen! "November 2004. America, battered by astronomical debts and reeling from prolonged economic decline, is gripped by a new and grave economic crisis. Like all such events, the causes are multiple and complex. But the president-elect and the voters who chose him by a landslide see only a single cause and a single culprit for America's problems: the Japanese."
In fairness to Mr. Burstein, he wasn't that far off. Add an election cycle or two, change Japan to China, yen to yuan and poof! He'd be a guru.
Five year old paper from Roubini and Setser. One who I can tolerate, the other I detest. I'm barely into it but I find it interesting so far. Fifty five pages:
http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:Pl4_Me98Lj0J:citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download%3Fdoi%3D10.1.1.127.3567%26rep%3Drep1%26type%3Dpdf+Bretton+Woods+2&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESg9cxiSM6fiGCuQQm-tGr6f4xrfRPGBEoRk_yrfN32Y8Fmk4onAC7T-qQmnpuKDSrA4DDVgneKIJgi0-p0a5Mp0GiUXKbbg2RkpVuFOOzhTExttfuHVZ_70w76oyHvthFLNdiz9&sig=AHIEtbSBwWF8BwwM36EHap3zk-cPVZyhaA
Unholy Wars written by John K. Cooley published in 1999. Has a picture of Bin Ladin on the front.
The Fourth Turning by Strauss and Howe. Published in 1997. Chapter ten is prescient.
Last and least, Yen! Japan's new financial empire and its threat to America! by Daniel Burstein. Published in 1990. First paragraph of Yen! "November 2004. America, battered by astronomical debts and reeling from prolonged economic decline, is gripped by a new and grave economic crisis. Like all such events, the causes are multiple and complex. But the president-elect and the voters who chose him by a landslide see only a single cause and a single culprit for America's problems: the Japanese."
In fairness to Mr. Burstein, he wasn't that far off. Add an election cycle or two, change Japan to China, yen to yuan and poof! He'd be a guru.
Five year old paper from Roubini and Setser. One who I can tolerate, the other I detest. I'm barely into it but I find it interesting so far. Fifty five pages:
http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:Pl4_Me98Lj0J:citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download%3Fdoi%3D10.1.1.127.3567%26rep%3Drep1%26type%3Dpdf+Bretton+Woods+2&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESg9cxiSM6fiGCuQQm-tGr6f4xrfRPGBEoRk_yrfN32Y8Fmk4onAC7T-qQmnpuKDSrA4DDVgneKIJgi0-p0a5Mp0GiUXKbbg2RkpVuFOOzhTExttfuHVZ_70w76oyHvthFLNdiz9&sig=AHIEtbSBwWF8BwwM36EHap3zk-cPVZyhaA